what the people actually said

[waider]

So the final number of seats per party is as follows:
Fianna Fáil 78
Fine Gael 51
Labour 20
Progressive Democrats 2
Green Party 6
Sinn Féin 4
Independents 5

for a total of 166 seats, requiring a majority of 84 (or a minority government, which I don't know enough about the likelihood of to comment). So, doodling on the back of an Emacs window, I've come up with the following permutations (given the fairly solid premise that a FF/FG government is not going to happen):

FF and everyone except FG: 115 seats
FF, Labour, PD, Greens, Independants: 111 seats
FF, Labour, Greens, Independants: 109 seats
FF, Labour, Greens: 103 seats
FF and Labour: 98 seats
FF, PD, Greens, SF, Independants: 95 seats
FF, Greens, SF, Independants: 93 seats
FF, PD, Greens, Independants: 91 seats
FF, Greens, Independants: 89 seats
FF, SF and Independants: 87 seats
FF, PD, Greens: 86 seats
FF, PD, Independants: 85 seats
FF, PD and SF: 84 seats
FF and Greens: 84 seats

FG and everyone except FF: 88 seats
FG, Labour, Greens, SF and Independants: 86 seats
FG, Labour, PD, Greens and Independants: 84 seats

I've struck out the options involving Sinn Féin since both parties, despite the years spent trying to encourage political groups in Northern Ireland to share government with the Republicans, have said they're not going into power with them in the South. This basically leaves the Rainbow Coalition with the unenviable task of not only coralling all the Independants, but also taking on the Progressive Democrats, which realistically speaking I can't see happening. Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, could conceivably go ahead without the support of any of the Independants, albeit at the risk of facing constant defeat in debates and having the bare minimum majority. Personally I think it's time Enda Kenny admitted defeat and started working on his plans for a FG victory in 2012... oh, wait. That's the year of the Mayan Apocalypse. Sorry, Enda, looks like you've missed your chance!

note: the calculations are hasty and may quite possibly be incorrect because let's face it, MATH IS HARD. And I'm sure mopti will correct both my math and my lack of knowledge about minority governments.

Comments

[mopti.livejournal.com]

You're right, I will correct you. It's math/S/.

[mopti.livejournal.com]

One of the independents may be shortlived: RTÉ could bankrupt her which would result in her being dismissed or somfink more technical along those lines.

FF did manage with a minority government supported by independents not so long ago, but at that time there were far more independents than now who had been FF members. Of the current 5, only two are these "FF gene pool" independents, one is "FG gene pool", one is "Irish Republican Social Party gene pool" and Finian McGrath is primordal hot mud.

There is a "law" of the scientif rather than the legal sort that says coalitions are formed with as small a block as possible. But solo players like our independents muck that up. FF and Greens with a Ceann Comhairle fromt he other side of the house gives you the formal majority, and FF should be able to haggle individual deals on specific issues for Lowry and Healy-[Rea | Rae] to keep them onside. The difficulty with that is that the Greens want something that would break FF: an end to corporate donations to political parties.

[waider.livejournal.com]

Well, by "minority government" I meant more that the party with the most votes wins without a formal coalition simply because Enda Kenny can't organise an opposing coalition. I don't know if our system allows for this.

Also, proofread before you click "Post Comment" :-)

[waidesworld.livejournal.com]

Proofread and is the spelling of the individuals who are not part affiliated? IndependEnts!
FF, PD, Greens, Independants: 91 seats would be my choice with the exception that not all the Independants (sic) are joining up.